Dead Rails and the Hit Makers Formula

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how  Dead Rails became the hottest new Roblox title. In that article I analyzed the Wild West zombie survival game's gameplay, including player roles, combat, progression systems, and randomness.

I don't have much previous experience when it comes to writing about game design, but I wrote that article because I really want to understand how hit games are made on Roblox. After all, breakout Roblox games such as Dead Rails are not only generating millions of dollars in revenue monthly, but they are also becoming pop culture phenomena, impacting millions of people through social media.

To unpack Dead Rails' success even further, let's turn to Derek Thompson’s book Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction. Thompson outlines why certain ideas catch fire, citing key principles like MAYA, distribution, social proof, algorithms, and repetition. As I'll explain, Dead Rails is a textbook case that beautifully illustrates these hit-making factors.

Familiar Yet Fresh – Dead Rails and the MAYA Principle

Thompson highlights the idea of MAYA: “Most Advanced Yet Acceptable.” Coined by designer Raymond Loewy, it refers to hitting the sweet spot between novelty and familiarity. As Thompson puts it, “To sell something surprising, make it familiar; and to sell something familiar, make it surprising.”

Dead Rails nails this balance.

Familiar Foundation

Dead Rails borrows from proven Roblox formats. It’s similar to Build A Boat For Treasure (4.3B+ plays), where players build a moving base and survive hazards, and a dusty trip (1.4B+ visits), a road trip survival game set in a desert. These mechanics are already well-understood by Roblox players, so Dead Rails was instantly accessible.

Novel Twists

What makes it “advanced” is the setting: an 1899 Wild West zombie apocalypse. Players defend a steam-powered train from the undead and assorted monsters while scavenging for fuel and parts. This mix of Western, horror, and engineering gave players something new to explore within a familiar framework. The result? A game that felt easy to pick up but still offered surprise—MAYA in action.

Thompson notes that many hits remix known ideas with a twist, creating an “aesthetic aha.” Dead Rails does exactly that. It’s a survival game on rails, but with train-mounted turrets, zombie bandits, and dusty frontier vibes. That mashup helped it stand out while remaining instantly playable.

Distribution Trumps Quality – The Roblox Boost

In Hit Makers, Thompson argues that distribution matters more than intrinsic quality. A great idea can fail without exposure, while a decent one can thrive with the right push. Dead Rails proves the point.

In late February of 2025, Roblox’s official channels featured Dead Rails prominently:

• Roblox’s TikTok posted a clip titled “Discover the dangers of the Dead Rails desert,” which got 499K+ likes and 32K comments.
• Roblox's Instagram had a post saying, “Do NOT vacation in the Dead Rails desert,” pulling in 114K+ likes.
• Roblox’s Twitter/X account also posted the same video asset, and it has received 224K+ views.

This kind of one-to-many broadcast gave Dead Rails instant visibility. Thompson writes that hits often originate from a “patient zero with a big audience.” In this case, Roblox was that distributor. Within days of these posts, Dead Rails surged to the front page of the platform. That wasn’t because the game changed—it was because people finally saw it.

Even great content needs a megaphone. Roblox gave Dead Rails one of the biggest available. That level of exposure can’t be replicated through word-of-mouth alone.

Social Proof – Influence of Influencers

Once Dead Rails got a spotlight, social proof took over. People gravitate toward what others are doing. As Thompson explains, perceived popularity creates a self-fulfilling loop: the more people talk about something, the more others want to check it out.

Roblox creators amplified this effect. Right after the official promotion, major YouTubers jumped on board:

• Flamingo (11M+ subs) posted a Dead Rails video that hit 2M+ views.
• Other creators like KreekCraft, Thinknoodles, and Sketch followed.

Each had huge audiences that trust their taste. When fans saw their favorite creators playing Dead Rails, it served as powerful validation. Viewers didn’t just see a game—they saw a trend forming. That created FOMO: if everyone’s playing it, why aren’t I?

This bandwagon effect echoed Thompson’s point that once something appears popular, it becomes more popular. Dead Rails’ live player count jumped from hundreds to tens of thousands, then to over 100K concurrent users. This was herd behavior in action—people didn’t want to miss out.

In Hit Makers, Thompson cites experiments showing how perception shapes reality. Just telling people others liked a song made them more likely to like it too. The same applies here: influencers made Dead Rails look like the next big thing, and the crowd followed.

Algorithmic Amplification – The Power of Roblox Discovery

Digital platforms don’t just reflect popularity—they multiply it. Thompson explains that algorithms on platforms like Facebook or Spotify actively push popular content to even more users, creating runaway hits. Roblox works the same way.

As Dead Rails’ player count soared, it climbed into the “Top Trending” and “Up-and-Coming” lists. These placements gave the game greater visibility. Users logging in to Roblox started seeing Dead Rails in prime spots—no search required.

That kind of exposure led to massive concurrent numbers— over 200K players at once during peak times (CCUs climbed to over 600K this past weekend). Few Roblox games ever reach that. But once a game hits those heights, Roblox’s algorithm feeds it to even more players. It’s a feedback loop: more players → more visibility → even more players.

Thompson calls this network amplification. Content doesn’t go viral organically—it gets lifted by powerful nodes in the system. In Roblox, that node is the discovery engine. Dead Rails hit the threshold and was rewarded with algorithmic fuel. From there, momentum did the rest.

Repetition Builds Curiosity – The Mere Exposure Effect

Another concept from Hit Makers is the “mere exposure effect”: the more we see something, the more we like it—or at least feel familiar enough to try it. Dead Rails didn’t just appear once. It showed up everywhere.

Players might first encounter it on TikTok, then see it again on YouTube, then on Roblox’s front page, then hear friends talking about it. That repetition made it stick. Even players who ignored it at first started feeling like they already “knew” the game. And that reduced friction to trying it.

Thompson notes that repeated exposure often makes audiences more receptive. Just like how repeated play can make a song grow on you, repeated content exposure makes a game seem more interesting, more credible, and worth a look.

Dead Rails benefited from this in a big way. Its name, visuals, and gameplay loop—train, zombies, survival—were imprinted across Roblox discourse. And importantly, this didn’t feel like spammy advertising. It came through influencers, friends, memes, and platform recs. It felt organic, which made the repetition more effective.

A Perfect Storm of Hit-Making Forces

Dead Rails wasn’t an overnight miracle. Its success followed the principles outlined in Hit Makers—a masterclass in how hits happen.

• It embraced the MAYA principle, delivering novelty on top of familiarity.
• It got a massive distribution boost from Roblox’s official channels.
• Social proof kicked in as influencers and friends played it en masse.
• The algorithmic infrastructure of Roblox kept feeding it to more users.
• Repetition across platforms made players curious and ready to try it.

Each layer built on the last. A good game became a visible one. A visible game became a trending one. A trending game became a must-play.

Thompson’s thesis is that hits aren’t about a single stroke of genius—they’re about stacking the odds. Dead Rails stacked them perfectly.

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This article was originally published on Max Power Gaming.